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Selected Published Papers

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The Inexorable Recoveries of US Unemployment  (with Marianna Kudlyak), Journal of Monetary Economics, volume 131, pp. 15-25, 2022

Risk Premium Shocks Can Create Inefficient Recessions (with Sebastian Di Tella) Review of Economic Studies, volume 89, pp. 1335–1369, 2022

The Unemployed with Jobs and without Jobs (with Marianna Kudlyak), Labour Economics, volume 79, pp.1-11, 2022

Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years? (with Marianna Kudlyak).  NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2022, Vol. 36:1-55.


Wage Dispersion and Search Behavior: The Importance of Non-Wage Job Values (with Andreas I. Mueller), Journal of Political Economy, 2018, 126(4).

Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman’s Presidential Address (with Thomas J. Sargent), Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2018, 32(1), pp. 121-134.

Measuring Job-Finding Rates and Matching Efficiency with Heterogenous Job-Seekers (with Sam Schulhofer-Wohl), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2018, 10(1), pp. 1-32.    Replication files available on request to authors.

Sources and Mechanisms of Stagnation and Impaired Growth in Advanced EconomiesECB Forum on Central Banking, June 2017, pp. 253-269.

The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 (with John Fernald, James Stock, Mark Watson), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2017.

The Bad News about Earnings per Member of the Population since 2000, and Hope for the Future, May 8, 2017. Forthcoming in Hoover volume.

High Discounts and High Unemployment, American Economic Review, 2017, (107)2, pp. 305-330. – Data and Calculations

The Anatomy of Stagnation in a Modern Economy, (Philips Lecture at the London School of Economics April 2016), Economica, 2017 84(333), January, pp. 1-15. —Datavideopodcastslides

Changes in Labor Participation and Household Income (with Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau), FRBSF Economic Letter 2016-02, February 1, 2016.

Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps, in John Taylor and Harald Uhlig, eds., Handbook of MacroeconomicsVol. 2, North Holland, 2016, pp. 2131-2181. — Backup Zip File —

Search-and-Matching Analysis of High Unemployment Caused by the Zero Lower BoundReview of Economic Dynamics, December 2015.

Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the U.S. Economy from the Financial Crisis, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2014, 29(1), pp. 71-128. – Data Appendix – Coverage in The Economist

Monitoring the Financial Condition and Expenditures of Households, in Markus Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy (eds.), Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, University of Chicago Press, 2014, pp. 175-182.

The Routes into and out of the Zero Lower Bound, Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2013.

Fiscal Stability of High-Debt Nations under Volatile Economic Conditions, German Economic Review 2013.

Diagnosing Consumer Confusion and Sub-Optimal Shopping Effort: Theory and Mortgage-Market Evidence (with Susan Woodward), American Economic Review, 2012, 102(7), December, pp. 3249-3276. – Programs -

Evidence on the Incidence of Wage Posting, Wage Bargaining, and on-the-Job Search (with Alan B. Krueger), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2012, 4(4), pp. 56-67.  - Data: Programs and Results / Data: Survey -

The High Sensitivity of Economic Activity to Financial Frictions, The Economic Journal, 2011, 121, May, pp. 351-378. – Data and Programs (Zip file) -

The Long Slump (2011 AEA Presidential Address), American Economic Review, 2011, 101(2), April, pp. 431-469. – Materials for My AEA Presidential Address 

Why Does the Economy Fall to Pieces after a Financial Crisis?Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(4), Fall 2010, pp. 3-20.

Reference Guide on Estimation of Economic Damages (with Victoria A. Lazear and Mark S. Allen), Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Washington: Federal Judicial Center, 1994. Third Edition 2011.

Fiscal StimulusDaedalus, Fall 2010, pp. 83-94.

The Burden of the Nondiversifiable Risk of Entrepreneurship (with Susan Woodward), American Economic Review, 2010, 100(3), June, pp. 1163-1194. – Programs -

Forward-Looking Decision Making, the Gorman Lectures, Princeton University Press, 2010. (Full text download by arrangement with publisher.)


By How Much Does GDP Rise if the Government Buys More Output? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2009, 2, pp. 183-231. – Data and Slides (Zip file) -

Reconciling Cyclical Movements in the Marginal Value of Time and the Marginal Product of LaborJournal of Political Economy, April 2009, 117(2), pp. 281-323. (Replaces “Sources and Mechanisms of Cyclical Fluctuations in the Labor Market”). – Data -

Equity Depletion from Government-Guaranteed Debt, December 2008, published as Chapter 7 of Forward-Looking Decision Making, titled “Financial Stability with Government-Guaranteed Debt.”

Cyclical Movements along the Labor Supply Function, in Katharine Bradbury, Christopher L. Foote, Robert K. Triest, (eds.Labor Supply in the New Century, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 2008, pp. 241-278.

Potential Competition, Limit Pricing, and Price Elevation from Exclusionary Conduct, in Issues in Competition Law and Policy, Vol. 1, ABA Publishing Chicago, 2008, pp. 433-448.

The Limited Influence of Unemployment on the Wage Bargain (with Paul R. Milgrom), American Economic Review, September 2008, 98(4), pp. 1653-1674 (PDF 278 kb).  - DATA -

How Much Do We Understand about the Modern Recession? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2007, 2, pp. 13-28. – Data -

Review of Michael D. Whinston’s Lectures on Antitrust Economics, Journal of Economic Literature, 45(4), December 2007, pp. 1066-1070.

The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending (with Charles I. Jones), Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 2007, 122(1), pp. 39-72- DATA -

The Macroeconomy and Determinants of the Earnings of Less-Skilled Workers, in R. Blank, S. Danziger, and R. Schoeni (eds.), Working and Poor: How Economic and Policy Changes Are Affecting Low-Wage Workers, Russell Sage Foundation, 2006, pp. 89-112.  - DATA -

Job Loss, Job Finding, and Unemployment in the U.S. Economy over the Past Fifty Years, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2005, pp. 101-137.  - DATA - (16,000 kb).

Separating the Business Cycle from Other Economic Fluctuations, in The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pp. 133-179, August 2005. - Data -.

Employment Efficiency and Sticky Wages: Evidence from Flows in the Labor Market,  Review of Economics and Statistics, August 2005, 87(3), pp. 397-407. - Data -

Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness, American Economic Review, March 2005, 95(1), pp. 50-65. - Data -.  Correction by Guido Lorenzoni.

Measuring Factor Adjustment Costs, Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 2004, 119(3), pp. 899-927. - Data -

Modern Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations: Empirics and Policy Applications, AER Papers and Proceedings, May 2003, 93(2), pp. 145-150.

Controlling the Price Level, Contributions to Macroeconomics, 2002, 2(1), article 5.

The Stock Market and Capital Accumulation, American Economic Review, December 2001, 91(5), pp. 1185-1202. – Data Appendix -

Struggling to Understand the Stock Market (the Richard T. Ely Lecture), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2001, 91(2), pp. 1-11.

e-Capital: The Link between the Labor Market and the Stock Market in the 1990s,  Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2000, 2, pp. 73-118.

Toward a Quantification of the Effects of Microsoft’s Conduct (with Chris E. Hall), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May, 2000, 90(2), pp. 188-191.

Reorganization, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, June 2000, pp. 1-22.


Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others? (with Charles I. Jones), Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1999, 114(1), pp. 83-116, February 1999. – Data Sets -

Labor-Market Frictions and Employment Fluctuations, in John Taylor and Michael Woodford (eds.) Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1999, North-Holland, pp. 1137-1170.

Irving Fisher’s Self-Stabilizing Money, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1997, 87(2), pp. 436-438.

Levels of Economic Activity across Countries, (with Charles I. Jones), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1997, 87(2), pp. 173-177.

Potential Disruption from the Move to a Consumption Tax, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1997, 87(2), pp. 147-150.

Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Allocation of Time, Journal of Labor Economics, January 1997, 15 (1), pp. S223-S250.

The Effects of Tax Reform on Prices and Asset Values, in Tax Policy and the Economy, National Bureau of Economic Research, James Poterba (ed.), vol. 10, MIT Press, 1996, pp. 71-88.

Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity (with Antonio Ciccone), American Economic Review, March 1996, 86(1), pp. 54-70.

Lost Jobs, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1995, 1, pp. 221-256.

The Value and Performance of U.S. Corporations (with Bronwyn H. Hall), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1993, 1, pp. 1-34.

Labor Demand, Labor Supply, and Employment Volatility, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 7(1), 1991, pp. 17-46.

Substitution over Time in Consumption and Work, in L. McKenzie and S. Zamagni (eds.), Value and Capital Fifty Years Later, MacMillan, 1991, pp. 239-267.

Invariance Properties of Solow’s Productivity Residual, in Peter Diamond (ed.), Growth/ Productivity/Unemployment: Essays to Celebrate Bob Solow’s Birthday, 1990, MIT Press, pp. 71-112.


The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry, Journal of Political Economy, October 1988, 96(5), pp. 921-947.

Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption, Journal of Political Economy, April 1988, 96(2), pp. 339-357.

The Excess Sensitivity of Layoffs and Quits to Demand (with Edward Lazear), Journal of Labor Economics, 1984, 2(2), pp. 233-257.

Optimal Fiduciary Monetary Systems, Journal of Monetary Economics, July 1983, 12(1), pp. 33-50.

The Importance of Lifetime Jobs in the U.S. Economy, American Economic Review, September 1982, 72(4), pp. 716-724.

The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households (with Frederic Mishkin), EconometricaMarch 1982, 50(2), pp. 461-481.

Labor Supply and Aggregate Fluctuations, in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1980, 12, pp. 7-33.


Efficient Wage Bargains under Uncertain Supply and Demand (with David Lilien), American Economic Review, December 1979, 69(5), pp. 868-879.

A Theory of the Natural Unemployment Rate and the Duration of Employment, Journal of Monetary Economics, April 1979, 5(2), pp. 1-17.

Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence, Journal of Political Economy, December 1978, 86(6), pp. 971-987.

An Aspect of the Economic Role of Unemployment, from Microeconomic Foundations of Macroeconomics, 1977.

Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models (with E. Berndt, B. Hall, and J. Hausman), Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 3/4, 1974, pp. 653-665.

The Specification of Technology with Several Kinds of Output,  Journal of Political Economy, July-August 1973, 81(4), pp. 878-892.

Wages, Income, and Hours of Work in the U.S. Labor Force, in H. Watts and G. Cain, Income Maintenance and Labor Supply: Econometric Studies, Rand McNally, 1973, pp. 102-162.

Turnover in the Labor Force,  Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1972, 3, pp. 709-756.

The Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Economy with Foresight,  Review of Economic Studies, April 1971, 38(114), pp. 229-244.

The Measurement of Quality Change from Vintage Price Data, in Zvi Griliches (ed.), Price Indexes and Quality Change, Harvard University Press, 1971, pp. 240-271.

Why Is the Unemployment Rate So High at Full Employment? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1970, 3, pp. 369-410.


Consumption Taxes versus Income Taxes: Implications for Economic Growth, in Proceedings of the 61st Annual Conference on Taxation, National Tax Association, 1968, pp. 125-145.

Technical Change and Capital from the Point of View of the Dual, Review of Economic Studies, January 1968, 35(101), pp. 35-46.

Tax Policy and Investment Behavior (with Dale W. Jorgenson), American Economic Review, June 1967, 57(3), pp. 391-414. Reply and Further ResultsAmerican Economic Review, June 1969, 59(3), pp. 388-401.


Economics: Principles and Applications (with Marc Lieberman) South-Western, 1997; sixth edition 2012.

Forward-Looking Decision Making, the Gorman Lectures, Princeton University Press, 2010. (Full text download by arrangement with publisher.)

Digital Dealing: How eMarkets are Transforming the Economy2002, Norton.

Booms and Recessions in a Noisy EconomyArthur Okun Memorial Lectures, Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut, 1991.

The Rational Consumer: Theory and EvidenceChapter 1, A Theory of Inheritance, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1990.

Macroeconomics, Sixth Edition (with David Papell), W.W. Norton, 2005 (previous editions with John Taylor). Second edition, 1988. Third edition, 1991. Fourth edition, 1993Fifth edition, 1997.

The Flat Tax (complete text can be downloaded) (with Alvin Rabushka), Hoover Press, 1985. Second edition, 1995.

Low Tax, Simple Tax, Flat Tax (with Alvin Rabushka), McGraw-Hill, 1983.

Inflation: Causes and Effects, University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1982 (editor).


P. S: See also The Postcard Tax Return,” especially if you are working on your taxes.