Recent Unpublished Papers

A Major Shock Makes Prices More Flexible and May Result in a Burst of Inflation or Deflation   NBER working paper 31025 March 2023; Hoover Economics Working Paper 23105

Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years? (with Marianna Kudlyak), May 15, 2020.

Churn and Stability: The Remarkable Heterogeneity of Flows among Employment, Job Search, and Non-Market Activities in the US Population  (with Marianna Kudlyak), 2022.

Using Empirical Marginal Cost to Measure Market Power in the US Economy, November 6, 2018. NBER Working Paper 25251. – Replication File -

Achieving Price Stability by Manipulating the Central Bank’s Payment on Reserves (with Ricardo Reis), May 16, 2017.

The Pervasive Importance of Tightness in Labor-Market Volatility (with Sam Schulhofer-Wohl), April 11, 2017.

The Role of the Growth of Risk-Averse Wealth in the Decline of the Safe Real Interest Rate (replaces ”Understanding the Decline in the Safe Real Interest Rate”), April 8, 2017. – Data and Calculations –

Why Has the Unemployment Rate Fared Better than GDP Growth?, June 28, 2016.—Data

Maintaining Central-Bank Financial Stability under New-Style Central Banking (with Ricardo Reis), July 16, 2015.

What the Cyclical Response of Advertising Reveals about Markups and other Macroeconomic Wedges, April 2014 (replaces NBER Working Paper 18370). – Data and Calculations –