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Economics: Principles and Applications (with Marc Lieberman) 

Forward-Looking Decision Making, the Gorman Lectures, Princeton University Press, 2010. (Full text download by arrangement with publisher.)

Digital Dealing: How eMarkets are Transforming the EconomyNorton, 2002.

Booms and Recessions in a Noisy EconomyArthur Okun Memorial Lectures, Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut, 1991.

The Rational Consumer: Theory and EvidenceChapter 1, A Theory of Inheritance, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1990.

Macroeconomics, Sixth Edition (with David Papell), W.W. Norton, 2005 (previous editions with John Taylor). Second edition, 1988. Third edition, 1991. Fourth edition, 1993Fifth edition, 1997.

The Flat Tax (complete text can be downloaded) (with Alvin Rabushka), Hoover Press, 1985. Second edition, 1995.

Low Tax, Simple Tax, Flat Tax (with Alvin Rabushka), McGraw-Hill, 1983.

Inflation: Causes and Effects, University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1982 (editor).

Articles and Papers:


Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years? (with Marianna Kudlyak), May 15, 2020.


Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics (with Marianna Kudlyak), February 16, 2019.


Using Empirical Marginal Cost to Measure Market Power in the US Economy, November 6, 2018. NBER Working Paper 25251. – Replication File -

Wage Dispersion and Search Behavior: The Importance of Non-Wage Job Values (with Andreas I. Mueller), Journal of Political Economy, 2018, 126(4), 2018.

Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman’s Presidential Address (with Thomas J. Sargent), Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2018, 32(1), pp. 121-134.

Measuring Job-Finding Rates and Matching Efficiency with Heterogenous Job-Seekers (with Sam Schulhofer-Wohl), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2018, 10(1), pp. 1-32. Replication files available on request to authors.


Low Interest Rates: Causes and ConsequencesInternational Journal of Central Banking, 2017, 13(3), Sept., pp. 103-118.

Sources and Mechanisms of Stagnation and Impaired Growth in Advanced EconomiesECB Forum on Central Banking, June 2017, pp. 253-269.

The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 (with John Fernald, James Stock, Mark Watson), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2017.

Achieving Price Stability by Manipulating the Central Bank’s Payment on Reserves (with Ricardo Reis), May 16, 2017.

The Bad News about Earnings per Member of the Population since 2000, and Hope for the Future, May 8, 2017. Forthcoming in Hoover volume.

The Pervasive Importance of Tightness in Labor-Market Volatility (with Sam Schulhofer-Wohl), April 11, 2017.

High Discounts and High Unemployment, American Economic Review, 2017, 107(2), pp. 305-330– Data and Calculations

The Role of the Growth of Risk-Averse Wealth in the Decline of the Safe Real Interest Rate (replaces ”Understanding the Decline in the Safe Real Interest Rate”), April 8, 2017. – Data and Calculations –

The Anatomy of Stagnation in a Modern Economy, (Philips Lecture at the London School of Economics April 2016), Economica, 2017, 84(333), January, pp. 1-15. —Datavideopodcastslides


Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps, in John Taylor and Harald Uhlig, eds., Handbook of MacroeconomicsVol. 2, North Holland, pp. 2131-2181. — Backup Zip File —

Why Has the Unemployment Rate Fared Better than GDP Growth? Sept. 27, 2016. .—Data

Changes in Labor Participation and Household Income (with Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau), FRBSF Economic Letter 2016-02, February 1, 2016.

Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps, in John Taylor and Harald Uhlig, eds., Handbook of MacroeconomicsVol. 2, North Holland, pp. 2131-2181. — Backup Zip File —


Search-and-Matching Analysis of High Unemployment Caused by the Zero Lower BoundReview of Economic Dynamics, December 2015.

Maintaining Central-Bank Financial Stability under New-Style Central Banking (with Ricardo Reis), July 16, 2015.


Secular Stagnation, November 18, 2014. Slides — Data and Calculations

Monitoring the Financial Condition and Expenditures of Households, in Markus Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy (eds.), Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, University of Chicago Press, 2014, pp. 175-182.

High Discounts and High Unemployment, NBER Working Paper 19871, September 2014. – Data and Calculations

Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the U.S. Economy from the Financial Crisis, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2014, 29(1), pp. 71-128. – Data Appendix – Coverage in The Economist

What the Cyclical Response of Advertising Reveals about Markups and other Macroeconomic Wedges, April 2014 (replaces NBER Working Paper 18370). – Data and Calculations –


The Routes into and out of the Zero Lower Bound, Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2013.

Fiscal Stability of High-Debt Nations under Volatile Economic Conditions, German Economic Review 2013.


Diagnosing Consumer Confusion and Sub-Optimal Shopping Effort: Theory and Mortgage-Market Evidence (with Susan Woodward), American Economic Review, 2012, 102(7), December, pp. 3249-3276. – Programs -

How the Financial Crisis Caused Persistent Unemployment, in Lee E. Ohanian, John B. Taylor, Ian J. Wright (eds.Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, Hoover Institution Press, 2012, pp. 57-83.

Quantifying the Forces Leading to the Collapse of GDP after the Financial Crisis, February 2012 (replaces “Clashing Theories of Unemployment” May 2011).

Evidence on the Incidence of Wage Posting, Wage Bargaining, and on-the-Job Search (with Alan B. Krueger), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2012, 4(4), pp. 56-67.  - Data: Programs and Results / Data: Survey -


The High Sensitivity of Economic Activity to Financial Frictions, The Economic Journal, 2011, 121, May, pp. 351-378.— Data and Programs (Zip File) —

The Long Slump (2011 AEA Presidential Address), American Economic Review, 2011, 101(2), April, pp. 431-469. – Materials for My AEA Presidential Address 

Reference Guide on Estimation of Economic Damages (with Victoria A. Lazear and Mark S. Allen), Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Washington: Federal Judicial Center, 1994. Third Edition 2011.


The Labor Market in the Current Slump, November 2010.

Why Does the Economy Fall to Pieces after a Financial Crisis?Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(4), Fall 2010, pp. 3-20.

Fiscal StimulusDaedalus, Fall 2010, pp. 83-94.

The Burden of the Nondiversifiable Risk of Entrepreneurship (with Susan Woodward), American Economic Review, 2010, 100 (3), June, pp. 1163-1194. - Programs -


Sticky Prices and Variable Markups, October 2009.

By How Much Does GDP Rise if the Government Buys More Output? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2009, 2, pp. 183-231. – Data and Slides (Zip File) —

Reconciling Cyclical Movements in the Marginal Value of Time and the Marginal Product of LaborJournal of Political Economy, April 2009, 117(2), pp. 281-323. (Replaces “Sources and Mechanisms of Cyclical Fluctuations in the Labor Market”). – Data —


Cyclical Movements along the Labor Supply Function, in Katharine Bradbury, Christopher L. Foote, Robert K. Triest, (eds.Labor Supply in the New Century, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 2008, pp. 241-278.

Potential Competition, Limit Pricing, and Price Elevation from Exclusionary Conduct, in Issues in Competition Law and Policy, Vol. 1, ABA Publishing Chicago, 2008, pp. 433-448.

The Limited Influence of Unemployment on the Wage Bargain (with Paul R. Milgrom), American Economic Review, September 2008, 98(4), pp. 1653-1674 (PDF 278 kb).   – DATA -

Equity Depletion from Government-Guaranteed Debt, December 2008, published as Chapter 7 of Forward-Looking Decision Making, titled “Financial Stability with Government-Guaranteed Debt.”

General Equilibrium with Customer Relationships: A Dynamic Analysis of Rent-Seeking, February 2008 (PDF 615 kb)


How Much Do We Understand about the Modern Recession? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2007, 2, pp. 13-28. - Data -

Review of Michael D. Whinston’s Lectures on Antitrust Economics, Journal of Economic Literature, 45(4), December 2007, pp. 1066-1070.

The Incentives to Start New Companies: Evidence from Venture Capital (with Susan Woodward) April 2007 (PDF 400 kb). NBER Working Paper 13056.

The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending (with Charles I. Jones), Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 2007, 122(1), pp. 39-72- Data -


Complete Markets as an Approximation to the Bewley Equilibrium with Unemployment Risk, August 22, 2006 (PDF 166 kb).

The Labor Market and Macro Volatility: A Nonstationary General-Equilibrium Analysis, April 9, 2006 (PDF 280 kb).

Editorial on Ben Bernanke appointmentWall Street Journal, February 21, 2006.

The Macroeconomy and Determinants of the Earnings of Less-Skilled Workers, in R. Blank, S. Danziger, and R. Schoeni (eds.), Working and Poor: How Economic and Policy Changes Are Affecting Low-Wage Workers, Russell Sage Foundation, 2006, pp. 89-112.  - Data -


The Amplification of Unemployment Fluctuations through Self-Selection, September 28, 2005 (PDF 142 kb).  – Data  -

Job Loss, Job Finding, and Unemployment in the U.S. Economy over the Past Fifty Years, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2005, pp. 101-137.  - Data - (16,000 kb).

Separating the Business Cycle from Other Economic Fluctuations, in The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pp. 133-179, August 2005. - DATA -

Employment Efficiency and Sticky Wages: Evidence from Flows in the Labor Market,  Review of Economics and Statistics, August 2005, 87(3), pp. 397-407. - DATA -

Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness, American Economic Review, March 2005, 95(1), pp. 50-65. - Data -  Correction by Guido Lorenzoni.


Guidelines for Tax Reform, Testimony before House Budget Committee 10/16/04.

The Labor Market is the Key to Understanding the Business Cycle, unpublished, September 2004.

Measuring Factor Adjustment Costs, Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 2004, 119(3), pp. 899-927. - Data -


Benchmarking the Returns to Venture (with Susan E. Woodward), December 2003, NBER WP 10202.

Corporate Earnings Track the Competitive Benchmark, November 14, 2003 (PDF, 272 kb), NBER WP 10150.

Data: Stock Market and Capital AccumulationEarnings by Industry.  Earnings - Total Corp. 

Understanding the Evolution of U.S. Manufacturing, Testimony before Senate Finance Committee 2003

Modern Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations: Empirics and Policy Applications, AER Papers and Proceedings, May 2003, 93(2), pp. 145-150.

Potential Competition and the Prices of Network Goods: Desktop Software, April 29, 2003 (PDF, 235 kb).


Response of Prices to Shifts in Demand, March 2002.

Controlling the Price Level, Contributions to Macroeconomics, 2002, 2(1), article 5.


Comment on “Productivity Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?” by Basu, Fernald, Shapiro, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 55, 2001.

The Stock Market and Capital Accumulation, American Economic Review, December 2001, 91(5), pp. 1185-1202.
Data appendix.

Struggling to Understand the Stock Market (the Richard T. Ely Lecture), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2001, 91(2), pp. 1-11.


The Value of Education: Evidence from around the Globe, November 2000.

Reorganization, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, June 2000, pp. 1-22.

Toward a Quantification of the Effects of Microsoft’s Conduct (with Chris E. Hall), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May, 2000, 90(2), pp. 188-191.

Monetary Policy with Changing Financial and Labor-Market Fundamentals, May 2000.

Optimal Contracts to Defend Upstream Monopoly, January 2000 (PDF, 238 kb).

e-Capital: The Link between the Labor Market and the Stock Market in the 1990s,  Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2000, 2, pp. 73-118.


The Concentration of Job Destruction, NBER Working Paper 7025, 1999.

Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others? (with Charles I. Jones), Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1999, 114(1), pp. 83-116, February 1999. - DATA SETS -

Aggregate Job Destruction and Inventory Liquidation, NBER Working Paper 6912, January 1999.

Labor-Market Frictions and Employment Fluctuations, in John Taylor and Michael Woodford (eds.) Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1999, North-Holland, pp. 1137-1170.


Comment on “Jobless Growth: Appropriability, Factor Substitution, and Unemployment” by Caballero and Hammour, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 48, 1998, pp. 95-99.

Job Destruction in General EquilibriumMay 1998.


The Inkjet Aftermarket: An Economic Analysis, unpublished, August 1997.

Irving Fisher’s Self-Stabilizing Money, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1997, 87(2), pp. 436-438.

Levels of Economic Activity across Countries, (with Charles I. Jones), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1997, 87(2), pp. 173-177.

Potential Disruption from the Move to a Consumption Tax, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1997, 87(2), pp. 147-150.

Overview of the U.S. Economy (with Susan E. Woodward), prepared for Korea Development Institute, 1997.

Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Allocation of Time, Journal of Labor Economics, January 1997, 15 (1), pp. S223-S250.

The Effects of Tax Reform on Housingprepared for AEA/REUA Session on Tax Reform and Real Estate, Jan. 6, 1997.


Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity (with Antonio Ciccone), American Economic Review, March 1996, 86(1), pp. 54-70.

The Effects of Tax Reform on Prices and Asset Values, in Tax Policy and the Economy, National Bureau of Economic Research, James Poterba (ed.), vol. 10, MIT Press, 1996, pp. 71-88.

The Flat Tax: A Simple Progressive Consumption Tax (with Alvin Rabushka), in  Michael J. Boskin (ed.), Frontiers of Tax Reform, Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 1996.

Putting the Flat Tax into Action (with Alvin Rabushka), in Fairness & Efficiency in the Flat Tax, AEI press, 1996, pp. 3-41.

Robert Lucas, Recipient of the 1995 Nobel Memorial Prize in EconomicsScandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 98 (1), 1996, pp. 33-48.


Lost Jobs, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1995, 1, pp. 221-256.

The Effects of the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity on Economic Activity, joke paper prepared for BPEA, 1995.

The Flat Tax in 1995 (with Alvin Rabushka), prepared for AEI Flat Tax Conference, 1995.

The Flat TaxTestimony before the House Committee on Ways and Means, 1995.

International Consequences of the Leading Consumption Tax Proposals, prepared for CEPR Conference on Fundamental Tax Reform, Dec. 1, 1995.


Nominal Income Targeting (with N. Gregory Mankiw), in N. Gregory Mankiw (ed.), Monetary Policy, University of Chicago Press, 1994, pp. 71-93.

Quantifying Specification Error in Models with Expectations(with Steven N. Durlauf), unpublished, 1994


The Value and Performance of U.S. Corporations (with Bronwyn H. Hall), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1993, 1, pp. 1-34.

Macro Theory and the Recession of 1990-91American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 83(2), May 1993.

Credible Long-Term Wage Offersunpublished, 1993.


Labor Demand, Labor Supply, and Employment Volatility, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 7(1), 1991, pp. 17-46.

Recession Dating, prepared for Federal Reserve Board, unpublished, December 1991.

Substitution over Time in Consumption and Work, in L. McKenzie and S. Zamagni (eds.), Value and Capital Fifty Years Later, MacMillan, 1991, pp. 239-267.

Recessions as Reorganizations, unpublished, February 1991.


Invariance Properties of Solow’s Productivity Residual, in Peter Diamond (ed.), Growth/ Productivity/Unemployment: Essays to Celebrate Bob Solow’s Birthday, 1990, MIT Press, pp. 71-112.

Contracts: Determinants, Properties, and Implications, remarks for the concluding panel, Nobel Symposium, August 1990.

High and Low Unemployment Equilibria, Self-Selection, and Screening in the Labor Market, unpublished, February 1990.


Consumption, in Robert J. Barro (ed.,), Modern Business Cycle Theory, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1989, pp. 153-177.


The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry, Journal of Political Economy, October 1988, 96(5), pp. 921-947.

Fluctuations in Equilibrium UnemploymentAmerican Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 78, No. 2, May 1988. Pp. 269-275.

Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption, Journal of Political Economy, April 1988, 96(2), pp. 339-357.

An Efficient, Equitable Tax for the 1990s (with Alvin Rabushka), unpublished, 1988.

Increasing Returns: Theory and Measurement with Industry Dataunpublished, 1988.


Productivity and the Business Cycle, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 27, 1987, pp. 421-444.

The Volatility of Employment with Fixed Costs of Going to Work, unpublished, June 1987.


Cyclical Fluctuations in the Labor Market (with David Lilien), in O. Ashenfelder and R. Layard (eds.), Handbook of Labor Economics, Amsterdam: North Holland, 1986, pp. 1001-1035.

Market Structure and Macroeconomic FluctuationsBrookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2, 1986, pp. 285-322.

Monetary Policy under Financial Innovation and Deregulation, in Y. Suzuki and H. Yomo (eds.), Financial Innovation and Monetary Policy: Asia and the West, University of Tokyo Press, 1986.

Near-Indeterminacy of Output under Constant Marginal Cost, unpublished, July 1986.

Optimal Monetary Institutions and Policy, in Colin Campbell, William Dougan (eds.), Alternative Monetary Regimes, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986, pp. 224-239.

The Role of Consumption in Economic Fluctuations, in Robert J. Gordon (ed.,) The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, University of Chicago Press, 1986, pp. 237-55 and 265-66.

Unit Elasticity Hypothesis and the Indeterminacy of Output, unpublished, March 1986.


Real Interest and Consumption, NBER Working Paper 1694, August 1985.


The Federal Deficit in the Longer Run, unpublished, 1984.

A Free Market Policy To Stabilize the Purchasing Power of the Dollar, in Barry N. Siegel (ed.), Money in Crisis: The Federal Reserve, the Economy, and Monetary Reform, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing, 1984, pp. 303-321.

Persistent Employment Fluctuations and Cautious Wage Adjustment, unpublished, June 1984.

The Inefficiency of Marginal-Cost Pricing and the Apparent Rigidity of Prices, NBER Working Paper 1347, May 1984.

Monetary Strategy with an Elastic Price StandardPrice Stability and Public Policy: A Symposium Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1984.

The Excess Sensitivity of Layoffs and Quits to Demand (with Edward Lazear), Journal of Labor Economics, 1984, 2(2), pp. 233-257.


Optimal Fiduciary Monetary Systems, Journal of Monetary Economics, July 1983, 12(1), pp. 33-50.

Is Unemployment a Macroeconomic Problem? AEA Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 73, No. 2, May 1983, pp. 219-222.

Macroeconomic Policy under Structural ChangeIndustrial Change and Public Policy, A Symposium Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1983, pp. 85-111.


Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom: Review from the Perspective of New Development in Monetary EconomicsJournal of Economic Literature, Vol. XX, December 1982, pp. 1552-1556.

The Importance of Lifetime Jobs in the U.S. Economy, American Economic Review, September 1982, 72(4), pp. 716-724.

The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households (with Frederic Mishkin), EconometricaMarch 1982, 50(2), pp. 461-481.

Explorations in the Gold Standard and Related Policies for Stabilizing the Dollar, in Robert E.Hall (ed.), Inflation: Causes and Effects, University of Chicago Press, 1982, pp. 111-22.

Macroeconomic Policy for a Substantial Transfer of Resources during a Defense Emergency, unpublished,1982.

The Minimum Wage and Job Turnover in Markets for Young Workers, in Richard B. Freeman and David A. Wise (eds.) The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, University of Chicago Press, 1982, pp. 475-97.


The Government and the Monetary Unit, unpublished, December 1981.

A Proposal to Simplify our Tax System (with Alvin Rabushka), Wall Street Journal, December 10, 1981.

Comment on Davidson & Hendry’s “Interpreting Economic Evidence,” European Economic Review, Vol. 16, 1981, pp. 193-194.

The Role of the Government in Stabilizing Prices and Regulating Money, unpublished, January 1981.

Tax Treatment of Depreciation, Capital Gains, and Interest in an Inflationary Economy, in Charles R. Hulten (ed.), Depreciation, Inflation, and the Taxation of Income from Capital, Washington, DC: Urban Institute Press, 1981, pp. 149-166.


Labor Supply and Aggregate Fluctuations, in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1980, 12, pp. 7-33.

Employment Fluctuations and Wage Rigidity, in George L. Perry (ed.), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, 1980, pp. 91-123.

Stabilization Policy and Capital FormationAmerican Economic Review, Vol. 70, No. 2, May 1980, pp.157-63.


Efficient Wage Bargains under Uncertain Supply and Demand (with David Lilien), American Economic Review, December 1979, 69(5), pp. 868-879.

The Role of Prevailing Prices and Wages in the Efficient Organization of Markets, NBER Working Paper 0386, August 1979.

A Theory of the Natural Unemployment Rate and the Duration of Employment, Journal of Monetary Economics, April 1979, 5(2), pp. 1-17.

Intertemporal Substitution and Aggregate Fluctuations, unpublished, 1979.

The Measurement and Significance of Labor Turnover (with David Lilien), Concepts and Data Needs, National Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics, 1979, pp. 577-600.


Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence, Journal of Political Economy, December 1978, 86(6), pp. 971-987.

Controlling Inflation, unpublished, November 1978.

Distribution of Permanent Income (with Dennis W. Carlton), in Zvi Griliches, Wilhelm Krelle, Hans-Jurgen Krupp, Oldrich Kyn (eds.), Income Distribution and Economic Inequality, New York: Halsted Press, 1978.

The Macroeconomic Impact of Changes in Income Taxes in the Short and Medium Runs,  Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 386, No. 2, 1978, pp. S71-S85.

The Nature and Measurement of Unemployment, NBER Working Paper 0252, July 1978.

Some Evidence on the Sources of Economic Fluctuations, unpublished, June 1978.

The Unemployment Explosion of the 1970s, unpublished, February 1978.


An Aspect of the Economic Role of Unemployment, from Microeconomic Foundations of Macroeconomics, 1977.

The Conflicting Goals of National Energy Policy (with Robert S. Pindyck, The Public Interest, No. 47, 1977.

The Effectiveness of Training Programs in Raising Earnings, in Seymour L. Wolfbein (ed.), Men in thePre-Retirement Years, Philadelphia: Temple University, 1977, pp. 217-237.

Investment, Interest Rates, and the Effects of Stabilization PoliciesBrookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, 1977, pp. 61-121.


Notes on the Current State of Empirical Macroeconomics, unpublished, June 1976.

Occupational Mobility and the Distribution of Occupational Success among Young Men (with Richard Kasten), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 66, May 1976, pp. 309-315.

An Economic Appraisal of the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act, Testimony before House Subcommittee, April 1976.

An Approximate Divisia Index of Total Factor Productivity (with Spencer Star), Econometrica, Vol. 44, No. 2, March 1976, pp. 257-263.

The Phillips Curve in Macroeconomics Policy, in K. Brunner, A. Meltzer (eds.), The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets, Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1976.


The Taxation of Earnings under Public Assistance (with N. A. Barr), Economica, November 1975.

The Effects of the Experimental Negative Income Tax on Labor Supply, in Pechman and Timpane (eds.), Work Incentives and Income Guarantees: The New Jersey Negative Income Tax Experiments, The Brookings Institution, 1975.

The Rigidity of Wages and the Persistence of UnemploymentBrookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2, 1975, pp. 301-349.


Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models (with E. Berndt, B. Hall, and J. Hausman), Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 3/4, 1974, pp. 653-665.

The Process of Inflation in the Labor MarketBrookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2, 1974, pp. 343-409.

The Distribution of Unobserved Variables, unpublished, January 1974.


On the Statistical Theory of Unobserved Components, unpublished, August 1973.

The Specification of Technology with Several Kinds of Output,  Journal of Political Economy, July-August 1973, 81(4), pp. 878-892.

Wages, Income, and Hours of Work in the U.S. Labor Force, in H. Watts and G. Cain, Income Maintenance and Labor Supply: Econometric Studies, Rand McNally, 1973, pp. 102-162.

The Relative Occupational Success of Blacks and Whites (with Richard Kasten), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 3, 1973, pp. 781-797.

A Contribution to the Econometric Theory of Unobserved Components, unpublished, January 1973.


Turnover in the Labor Force,  Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1972, 3, pp. 709-756.

Book Review of Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, ed. Phelps, Journal of Economic Literature, March 1972.

The Variation in Hours of Work among Individuals, unpublished, January 1972.


The Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Economy with Foresight,  Review of Economic Studies, April 1971, 38(114), pp. 229-244.

The Measurement of Quality Change from Vintage Price Data, in Zvi Griliches (ed.), Price Indexes and Quality Change, Harvard University Press, 1971, pp. 240-271.

Application of the Theory of Optimum Capital Accumulation (with Dale W. Jorgenson), in G. Fromm (ed.), The Effect of Tax Incentives on Investment, Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1971, pp. 9-60.

The Market for Professional and Technical WorkersBrookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, 1971, pp. 213-218.

Prospects for Shifting the Phillips Curve Through Manpower PolicyBrookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 3, 1971, pp. 659-701.


Why Is the Unemployment Rate So High at Full Employment? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1970, 3, pp. 369-410.

The Calculation of Ordinary Least Squares Estimates, unpublished, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley, March 1970.

Unionism and the Inflationary Bias of Labor Markets, unpublished, January 1970.


Tax Policy and Investment Behavior (with Dale W. Jorgenson), American Economic Review, June 1967, 57(3), pp. 391-414. Reply and Further ResultsAmerican Economic Review, June 1969, 59(3), pp. 388-401.

Simulation Methods for Intertemporal Economic Models, UC Berkeley Working Paper, October 1968.

Transform Methods for the Study of Distributed Lags, UC Berkeley Working Paper in Economic Theory and Econometrics, #132, June 1968.

Consumption Taxes versus Income Taxes: Implications for Economic Growth, in Proceedings of the 61st Annual Conference on Taxation, National Tax Association, 1968, pp. 125-145.

A Flexible Infinite Distributed Lag (with Richard C. Sutch), Committee on Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, Institute of Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley Working Paper No. 124, February 1968.

Technical Change and Capital from the Point of View of the Dual, Review of Economic Studies, January 1968, 35(101), pp. 35-46.

Polynomial Distributed Lags, MIT Working Paper, July 1967.

Essays on the Theory of Wealth, MIT Ph.D. Thesis, June 1967.

The Burden of Slavery, unpublished, January 1966.

The Population of England in the 14th and 15th Centuries, unpublished, 1965.

Investment in Equipment and Structures, 1929-1961, Berkeley, Bachelor’s Thesis, May, 1964.